Philip's Bewitched in Pendle

The A+ walkers met today at the Visitor Centre car park, north of Barley, Lancashire BB12 9JX, OS grid reference SD 823 403 at 9 am. The estimated distance of the walk was 18 miles.

Despite losing two leaders before the start, Philip due to injury and Janet due to Grandma duty, the walk went ahead with 11 walkers. Pendle Hill, still covered with a sprinkling of snow, dominated the day. The summit was approached gradually, traversing its southern flanks through the Forest of Pendle and the village of Sabden, before striking north and upwards to reach the top via Ogden Clough. The weather was cloudy, but from there were panoramic views of the Pennine landscape, with pools of sunlight to the north catching the sparkling white summits of Pen-y-ghent and Ingleborough.

After the walk the group retired to the CAMRA listed Pendle Inn, for a well deserved and much anticipated "Pride of Pendle".

(Based on a report by Tim. Pictures contributed by Ernie.)

Turnout versus Travel Distance

Here is a scatter graph of our A walk turnout versus the travelling distance by road from Huddersfield Railway Station:

The graph also shows the straight line which gives the best fit to the data (using simple linear regression). For this line, the turnout is 31 for zero travelling distance, falling by 1 walker for about every 3 miles of additional travelling distance.

The travelling distance only explains a small part of the variability of the turnout. (This is reflected in the value of R², see http://people.duke.edu/~rnau/rsquared.htm.)

The slope of the line is 0.321, and the best estimate of its standard deviation is 0.0597, The slope is 5.6 times the standard deviation, which tells us that its value is reasonably accurate. Nonetheless, our walkers' habits could change.

Geoff's Taking t' Rough with t' Sharp

The A walkers met today at North Street car park (opposite the village hall), Gargrave BD23 3RN, OS grid reference SD 932 543 at 10 am. The distance and ascent of the walk were 11.0 miles and 1,334 feet, according to ViewRanger on an iPhone 4S. 24 people started the walk, but one soon had to drop out because of a previous injury. Here is the route:

http://my.viewranger.com/track/details/MTQ1MTQ4OQ%3D%3D

On top of Sharp Haw

It was a fine day. Better than the forecast. There was a little light rain in the morning and moderate wind on the high ground. Visibility was good, and we had some sunshine.

(Second picture contributed by Ernie.)

Turnout versus Difficulty

We now have records for the turnout on nearly hundred of our A walks. The table below shows the average turnout for various ranges of advertised walk length and grade:

Miles    M       S
10-11   29.7    26.7
11-12   24.5    22.2
12+     25.6    21.6

For our shorter walks, adding a mile to the advertised length typically reduced the turnout by more than grading it S rather than M. However, when the advertised length of the walk was over 12 miles, adding an extra mile had little effect, probably because only the stronger walkers remained.

According to the earlier calculations, the average ascents for M and S walks were 1,585 feet, and 2,133 feet respectively, a difference of 548 feet. According to Naismith's Rule, 3 miles of distance takes the same time as 2,000 feet of ascent. Our walkers behaviour appears to be rational here.

Even with nearly a hundred walks, the accuracy of the average turnouts above still leaves a lot to be desired. Here are the best estimates of the standard deviations of the values above:

Miles    M      S
10-11   2.0    4.7
11-12   1.5    1.6
12+     2.5    1.3

The random variability is as large as the effect we are trying to measure. The only exception is the difference between 10-11 M and 11-12 M, where we have about two standard deviations, but that still is not good.

Bob's Redmires Res

The A walkers met today at the most westerley car park on Redmires Road S10 4QZ, OS grid reference SK 256 857 at 10 am. The distance and ascent of the walk were 10.1 miles and 1,219 feet, according to ViewRanger on an iPhone 4S. There were 16 people on the walk. Here is the route:

http://my.viewranger.com/track/details/MTQzNzc1NQ%3D%3D

There was a cold wind, with rain and sleet in the afternoon.

(Picture contributed by Ernie.)

Scarborough Walking Holiday

Most of our regulars were away together in Scarborough last weekend - from Friday to Sunday. Philip had an unfortunate misadventure. He was thrown over twice by waves, injuring his arm on the first occasion, and falling on it again on the second. He had to be rescued by helicopter. Lets all hope he gets well soon.

(Pictures contributed by Ernie.)

Geoff's To Lindley Bridge & Back

The A walkers met today at Swinsty Moore Plantation Car Park (the one with the toilets), near Timble, LS21 2NP, OS grid reference SE 186 537 at 10 am. The distance and ascent of the walk were 10.6 miles and 1,570 feet, according to ViewRanger on an iPhone 4S. There were 3 people on the walk: the leader and two newcomers. The turnout was not encouraging, but most of the group were away together for the weekend. Here is the route, from an earlier recording:

http://my.viewranger.com/track/details/MTE5NTQxNQ%3D%3D

It was dry with a cold wind in the morning, and misty with heavy rain and sleet in the afternoon. It was nonetheless a good walk. We made rapid progress, despite difficult conditions under foot in places, finishing at 2:30 pm.

The snowdrops were in flower near Lindley Bridge. Spring is on its way!