We now have records for the turnout on nearly hundred of our A walks. The table below shows the average turnout for various ranges of advertised walk length and grade:
Miles M S
10-11 29.7 26.7
11-12 24.5 22.2
12+ 25.6 21.6
For our shorter walks, adding a mile to the advertised length typically reduced the turnout by more than grading it S rather than M. However, when the advertised length of the walk was over 12 miles, adding an extra mile had little effect, probably because only the stronger walkers remained.
According to the earlier calculations, the average ascents for M and S walks were 1,585 feet, and 2,133 feet respectively, a difference of 548 feet. According to Naismith's Rule, 3 miles of distance takes the same time as 2,000 feet of ascent. Our walkers behaviour appears to be rational here.
Even with nearly a hundred walks, the accuracy of the average turnouts above still leaves a lot to be desired. Here are the best estimates of the standard deviations of the values above:
Miles M S
10-11 2.0 4.7
11-12 1.5 1.6
12+ 2.5 1.3
The random variability is as large as the effect we are trying to measure. The only exception is the difference between 10-11 M and 11-12 M, where we have about two standard deviations, but that still is not good.
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